The Cuban dictatorship is aware of its agony and seeks to survive by transforming itself before the total economic collapse and social exhaustion.
American pressure has accelerated the decline of the regime with economic suffocation, energy deterioration and military movements.
The future of Cuba is controlled by Gaesa, the armed forces, and the Trump administration.
The mutual interest is in avoiding an uncontrolled explosion and a political vacuum that would generate another chaotic migration focus in the Caribbean.
The shared risk is that Cuba enters in a transition designed to save the regime from itself, without real democratization.
Conclusion: There might not be a pure continuity of Castro-ism, but a cosmetic transformation that deprives the Cubans of the right to decide their future after seven decades of tyranny.