Putin plans to pressure the West with an offensive on European territory to test NATO's determination.
US Intelligence fears that Russia could launch a limited aggression against an allied country using methods ranging from cyber-attacks to military incursions.
Washington takes the threat seriously, taking CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Moscow to warn of the consequences of a potential attack.
Putin estimates he doesn't need to face the whole NATO, but trigger a limited and fast incident and thus put it in difficulty.
The European Union must anticipate any action from the Kremlin to make it unfeasible before it is carried out.
Prevention involves strong investment in security, a subject that meets resistance in some European countries.
In addition, Russia's strategic risk encompasses more than anticipated, affecting European politics.
Safety in Europe is changing rapidly while Brussels remains stagnant.
Conclusion: The EU must abandon rhetoric and take firm, urgent steps towards strategic autonomy to defend the European way of life. Investing in defense, rebuilding the military industry, protecting infrastructure, coordinating intelligence systems, and strengthening diplomatic capacity are essential.